What is JEFI.L's Intrinsic value?

Jupiter Emerging & Frontier Income Trust Plc (JEFI.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 8, 2025, Jupiter Emerging & Frontier Income Trust Plc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $155.97 to $481.83 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $481.83 +412.6%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $449.20 +377.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $350.56 +272.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $191.55 +103.8%
Earnings Power Value $155.97 +65.9%

Is Jupiter Emerging & Frontier Income Trust Plc (JEFI.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $94.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Jupiter Emerging & Frontier Income Trust Plc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.9% 3.4%
Equity market risk premium 5.3% 6.3%
Adjusted beta 1.12 1.22
Cost of equity 8.9% 11.7%
Cost of debt 4.0% 7.0%
Tax rate 4.0% 4.8%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.12 0.12
After-tax WACC 8.4% 11.1%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 9.7% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $25 (FY09-2021) to $33 (FY09-2031)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 93% to 91%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 0% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $449 $270M 63.7%
10-Year Growth $482 $290M 42.2%
5-Year EBITDA $442 $266M 63.1%
10-Year EBITDA $477 $287M 41.6%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 63.6%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 10.3%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $350.56 (272.9% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 11.7% (Low) to 8.9% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $133 to $251
  • Selected fair value: $191.55 (103.8% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $9M
Discount Rate (WACC) 11.1% - 8.4%
Enterprise Value $80M - $106M
Net Debt $(1)M
Equity Value $81M - $107M
Outstanding Shares 1M
Fair Value $134 - $178
Selected Fair Value $155.97

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $57M
Enterprise Value $56M
Trailing P/E 4.26
Forward P/E 2.43
Trailing EV/EBITDA 10.15
Current Dividend Yield 1492.46%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -4.02%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.12

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $144.55
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $112.30
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $70.11
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $28.73
Earnings Power Value 10% $15.60
Weighted Average 100% $371.29

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Jupiter Emerging & Frontier Income Trust Plc's weighted average intrinsic value is $371.29, which is approximately 295.0% above the current market price of $94.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (93% to 91% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.12)

Given these factors, we believe Jupiter Emerging & Frontier Income Trust Plc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.