As of June 19, 2025, J D Wetherspoon PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $939.89 per share. With the current market price at $731.50, this represents a potential upside of 49.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $939.89 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 28.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 49.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.0% - 8.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2036 million in 07-2024 to $3110 million by 07-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 07-2024 | 2036 | 6% |
| 07-2025 | 2115 | 4% |
| 07-2026 | 2230 | 5% |
| 07-2027 | 2330 | 4% |
| 07-2028 | 2511 | 8% |
| 07-2029 | 2561 | 2% |
| 07-2030 | 2612 | 2% |
| 07-2031 | 2665 | 2% |
| 07-2032 | 2826 | 6% |
| 07-2033 | 3019 | 7% |
| 07-2034 | 3110 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 2% in 07-2024 to 2% by 07-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 07-2024 | 49 | 2% |
| 07-2025 | 51 | 2% |
| 07-2026 | 53 | 2% |
| 07-2027 | 56 | 2% |
| 07-2028 | 60 | 2% |
| 07-2029 | 61 | 2% |
| 07-2030 | 63 | 2% |
| 07-2031 | 64 | 2% |
| 07-2032 | 68 | 2% |
| 07-2033 | 72 | 2% |
| 07-2034 | 75 | 2% |
with a 5-year average of $48 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 07-2025 | 53 |
| 07-2026 | 62 |
| 07-2027 | 67 |
| 07-2028 | 74 |
| 07-2029 | 73 |
| 07-2030 | 76 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 0 |
| Days Inventory | 6 |
| Days Payables | 27 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 83 | 6 | 33 | 1 | 43 |
| 2026 | 182 | 13 | 69 | (11) | 110 |
| 2027 | 192 | 14 | 72 | (4) | 111 |
| 2028 | 208 | 15 | 78 | (8) | 124 |
| 2029 | 210 | 15 | 80 | (4) | 120 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 939.89 | 28.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 49.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 267.70 | -63.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 514.37 | -29.7% |
Is J D Wetherspoon PLC (JDW.L) a buy or a sell? J D Wetherspoon PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, J D Wetherspoon PLC (JDW.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 49.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $731.50.