As of June 16, 2025, JD Sports Fashion PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $144.34 per share. With the current market price at $76.08, this represents a potential upside of 89.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $119.90 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $144.34 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 57.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 89.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.5% - 9.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $11458 million in 02-2025 to $19433 million by 02-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 02-2025 | 11458 | 9% |
| 02-2026 | 11975 | 5% |
| 02-2027 | 12707 | 6% |
| 02-2028 | 13192 | 4% |
| 02-2029 | 14079 | 7% |
| 02-2030 | 14735 | 5% |
| 02-2031 | 15338 | 4% |
| 02-2032 | 16431 | 7% |
| 02-2033 | 17143 | 4% |
| 02-2034 | 18268 | 7% |
| 02-2035 | 19433 | 6% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 5% in 02-2025 to 4% by 02-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 02-2025 | 540 | 5% |
| 02-2026 | 529 | 4% |
| 02-2027 | 561 | 4% |
| 02-2028 | 582 | 4% |
| 02-2029 | 621 | 4% |
| 02-2030 | 650 | 4% |
| 02-2031 | 677 | 4% |
| 02-2032 | 725 | 4% |
| 02-2033 | 757 | 4% |
| 02-2034 | 806 | 4% |
| 02-2035 | 858 | 4% |
with a 5-year average of $364 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 02-2026 | 425 |
| 02-2027 | 469 |
| 02-2028 | 494 |
| 02-2029 | 490 |
| 02-2030 | 491 |
| 02-2031 | 516 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 4 |
| Days Inventory | 88 |
| Days Payables | 44 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1364 | 219 | 441 | 23 | 681 |
| 2027 | 1464 | 232 | 468 | 76 | 688 |
| 2028 | 1528 | 241 | 486 | 26 | 775 |
| 2029 | 1593 | 257 | 519 | 64 | 753 |
| 2030 | 1646 | 269 | 543 | 53 | 781 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 119.90 | 57.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 144.34 | 89.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 109.60 | 44.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 138.68 | 82.3% |
Is JD Sports Fashion PLC (JD.L) a buy or a sell? JD Sports Fashion PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, JD Sports Fashion PLC (JD.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 89.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $76.08.