As of May 23, 2025, Itaconix PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $100.00, this represents a potential upside of -2483.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -1406.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -2483.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.1% - 7.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $7 million in 12-2024 to $103 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 30.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 7 | 17% |
| 12-2025 | 10 | 55% |
| 12-2026 | 14 | 43% |
| 12-2027 | 20 | 41% |
| 12-2028 | 27 | 34% |
| 12-2029 | 37 | 35% |
| 12-2030 | 47 | 28% |
| 12-2031 | 59 | 24% |
| 12-2032 | 72 | 23% |
| 12-2033 | 87 | 20% |
| 12-2034 | 103 | 19% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -29% in 12-2024 to -11% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (2) | -29% |
| 12-2025 | (3) | -25% |
| 12-2026 | (3) | -22% |
| 12-2027 | (4) | -19% |
| 12-2028 | (5) | -17% |
| 12-2029 | (5) | -14% |
| 12-2030 | (6) | -13% |
| 12-2031 | (8) | -13% |
| 12-2032 | (9) | -12% |
| 12-2033 | (10) | -12% |
| 12-2034 | (12) | -11% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 0 |
| 12-2026 | 0 |
| 12-2027 | 0 |
| 12-2028 | 0 |
| 12-2029 | 0 |
| 12-2030 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 46 |
| Days Inventory | 124 |
| Days Payables | 57 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | (3) | (0) | 0 | (1) | (2) |
| 2026 | (4) | (0) | 0 | 2 | (6) |
| 2027 | (5) | (0) | 0 | 3 | (8) |
| 2028 | (6) | (0) | 0 | 1 | (7) |
| 2029 | (7) | (0) | 1 | 3 | (10) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1406.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -2483.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Itaconix PLC (ITX.L) a buy or a sell? Itaconix PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Itaconix PLC (ITX.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -2483.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $100.00.