As of June 12, 2025, Intertape Polymer Group Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $118.55 per share. With the current market price at $40.48, this represents a potential upside of 192.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $99.90 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $118.55 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 146.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 192.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.3% - 7.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1531 million in 12-2021 to $2112 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 1531 | 26% |
| 12-2022 | 1560 | 2% |
| 12-2023 | 1629 | 4% |
| 12-2024 | 1675 | 3% |
| 12-2025 | 1721 | 3% |
| 12-2026 | 1844 | 7% |
| 12-2027 | 1900 | 3% |
| 12-2028 | 1976 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 2024 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 2071 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 2112 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 5% in 12-2021 to 11% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 70 | 5% |
| 12-2022 | 95 | 6% |
| 12-2023 | 119 | 7% |
| 12-2024 | 142 | 9% |
| 12-2025 | 166 | 10% |
| 12-2026 | 199 | 11% |
| 12-2027 | 205 | 11% |
| 12-2028 | 214 | 11% |
| 12-2029 | 219 | 11% |
| 12-2030 | 224 | 11% |
| 12-2031 | 228 | 11% |
with a 5-year average of $70 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 6% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 72 |
| 12-2023 | 77 |
| 12-2024 | 87 |
| 12-2025 | 99 |
| 12-2026 | 105 |
| 12-2027 | 109 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 46 |
| Days Inventory | 79 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2022 | 174 | 19 | 73 | (21) | 104 |
| 2023 | 269 | 31 | 101 | 27 | 110 |
| 2024 | 310 | 37 | 104 | 11 | 158 |
| 2025 | 353 | 43 | 107 | 2 | 201 |
| 2026 | 403 | 52 | 114 | 33 | 204 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 99.90 | 146.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 118.55 | 192.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 50.33 | 24.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 66.50 | 64.3% |
Is Intertape Polymer Group Inc (ITP.TO) a buy or a sell? Intertape Polymer Group Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Intertape Polymer Group Inc (ITP.TO) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 192.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $40.48.