As of May 23, 2025, ITAB Shop Concept AB has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $39.61 per share. With the current market price at $23.75, this represents a potential upside of 66.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $34.27 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $39.61 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 44.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 66.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.7% - 6.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $6585 million in 12-2024 to $11690 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 6585 | 7% |
| 12-2025 | 7137 | 8% |
| 12-2026 | 7343 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 7719 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 8366 | 8% |
| 12-2029 | 8920 | 7% |
| 12-2030 | 9393 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 9800 | 4% |
| 12-2032 | 10405 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 11075 | 6% |
| 12-2034 | 11690 | 6% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 5% in 12-2024 to 5% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 320 | 5% |
| 12-2025 | 339 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 349 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 367 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 398 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 424 | 5% |
| 12-2030 | 446 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 466 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 494 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 526 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 556 | 5% |
with a 5-year average of $115 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 132 |
| 12-2026 | 141 |
| 12-2027 | 148 |
| 12-2028 | 149 |
| 12-2029 | 144 |
| 12-2030 | 152 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 55 |
| Days Inventory | 66 |
| Days Payables | 58 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 459 | 102 | 98 | 141 | 119 |
| 2026 | 635 | 139 | 134 | (22) | 383 |
| 2027 | 667 | 147 | 141 | 61 | 319 |
| 2028 | 712 | 159 | 153 | 122 | 279 |
| 2029 | 744 | 169 | 163 | 74 | 338 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 34.27 | 44.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 39.61 | 66.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 18.07 | -23.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 22.97 | -3.3% |
Is ITAB Shop Concept AB (ITAB.ST) a buy or a sell? ITAB Shop Concept AB is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, ITAB Shop Concept AB (ITAB.ST) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 66.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $23.75.