As of May 27, 2025, Inner Spirit Holdings Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.08 per share. With the current market price at $0.38, this represents a potential upside of -80.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.02 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.08 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -94.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -80.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.3% - 9.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $27 million in 12-2020 to $39 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 27 | 244% |
| 12-2021 | 28 | 5% |
| 12-2022 | 30 | 5% |
| 12-2023 | 31 | 4% |
| 12-2024 | 32 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 33 | 3% |
| 12-2026 | 34 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 35 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 36 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 38 | 5% |
| 12-2030 | 39 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -12% in 12-2020 to 2% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | (3) | -12% |
| 12-2021 | (2) | -7% |
| 12-2022 | (1) | -5% |
| 12-2023 | (1) | -3% |
| 12-2024 | (0) | -1% |
| 12-2025 | 0 | 0% |
| 12-2026 | 0 | 1% |
| 12-2027 | 0 | 1% |
| 12-2028 | 0 | 1% |
| 12-2029 | 1 | 1% |
| 12-2030 | 1 | 2% |
. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 16% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 2 |
| 12-2022 | 3 |
| 12-2023 | 4 |
| 12-2024 | 4 |
| 12-2025 | 5 |
| 12-2026 | 5 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 34 |
| Days Inventory | 158 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2021 | 2 | (1) | 3 | 4 | (5) |
| 2022 | 4 | (1) | 5 | (2) | 1 |
| 2023 | 5 | (0) | 5 | (1) | 1 |
| 2024 | 7 | (0) | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| 2025 | 8 | 0 | 5 | (0) | 3 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.02 | -94.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.08 | -80.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1.24 | 226.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1.24 | 225.5% |
Is Inner Spirit Holdings Ltd (ISH.CN) a buy or a sell? Inner Spirit Holdings Ltd is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Inner Spirit Holdings Ltd (ISH.CN) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -80.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.38.