As of May 24, 2025, IQGeo Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $38.68 per share. With the current market price at $478.00, this represents a potential upside of -91.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $38.68 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -123.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -91.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.1% - 10.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $44 million in 12-2023 to $270 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 19.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 44 | 67% |
| 12-2024 | 50 | 12% |
| 12-2025 | 57 | 15% |
| 12-2026 | 78 | 36% |
| 12-2027 | 97 | 25% |
| 12-2028 | 120 | 23% |
| 12-2029 | 148 | 24% |
| 12-2030 | 176 | 19% |
| 12-2031 | 206 | 17% |
| 12-2032 | 241 | 17% |
| 12-2033 | 270 | 12% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 0% in 12-2023 to 8% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 0 | 0% |
| 12-2024 | 1 | 1% |
| 12-2025 | 2 | 3% |
| 12-2026 | 3 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 5 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 8 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 10 | 7% |
| 12-2030 | 12 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 15 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 18 | 7% |
| 12-2033 | 20 | 8% |
with a 5-year average of $2 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 14% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 4 |
| 12-2025 | 5 |
| 12-2026 | 7 |
| 12-2027 | 9 |
| 12-2028 | 11 |
| 12-2029 | 14 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 107 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 33 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 2 | (4) |
| 2025 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 3 | (4) |
| 2026 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 5 | (5) |
| 2027 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 6 | (4) |
| 2028 | 23 | 3 | 16 | 7 | (3) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -123.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 38.68 | -91.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 190.67 | -60.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 391.70 | -18.1% |
Is IQGeo Group PLC (IQG.L) a buy or a sell? IQGeo Group PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, IQGeo Group PLC (IQG.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -91.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $478.00.