What is IQAI.L's DCF valuation?

IQ-AI Ltd (IQAI.L) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 31, 2025, IQ-AI Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.82, this represents a potential upside of -2043.9%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -1685.1%
Potential Upside (10-year) -2043.9%
Discount Rate (WACC) 4.8% - 6.9%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $1 million in 12-2023 to $1 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 0.0%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2023 1 14%
12-2024 1 14%
12-2025 1 10%
12-2026 1 8%
12-2027 1 8%
12-2028 1 7%
12-2029 1 9%
12-2030 1 8%
12-2031 1 10%
12-2032 1 8%
12-2033 1 7%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -102% in 12-2023 to -83% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2023 (1) -102%
12-2024 (1) -57%
12-2025 (1) -63%
12-2026 (1) -68%
12-2027 (1) -73%
12-2028 (1) -78%
12-2029 (1) -83%
12-2030 (1) -83%
12-2031 (1) -83%
12-2032 (1) -83%
12-2033 (1) -83%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 17% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2024 0
12-2025 0
12-2026 0
12-2027 0
12-2028 0
12-2029 0

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 64
Days Inventory 0
Days Payables 0

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
6M/2024 (0) (0) 0 0 (0)
2025 (1) (0) 0 0 (1)
2026 (1) (0) 0 (0) (1)
2027 (1) (0) 0 0 (1)
2028 (1) (0) 0 0 (1)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 4.8% - 6.9%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 4.5%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 6.0x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -1685.1%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -2043.9%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(32)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(40)M

Investment Conclusion

Is IQ-AI Ltd (IQAI.L) a buy or a sell? IQ-AI Ltd is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, IQ-AI Ltd (IQAI.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -2043.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -102% to -83%)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.82.