As of July 10, 2025, Ipsos SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $71.25 per share. With the current market price at $42.90, this represents a potential upside of 66.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $63.76 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $71.25 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 48.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 66.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.0% - 9.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2441 million in 12-2024 to $3433 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 2441 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 2554 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 2605 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 2706 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 2866 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 2931 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 2990 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 3101 | 4% |
| 12-2032 | 3208 | 3% |
| 12-2033 | 3287 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 3433 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 9% in 12-2024 to 9% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 210 | 9% |
| 12-2025 | 219 | 9% |
| 12-2026 | 224 | 9% |
| 12-2027 | 232 | 9% |
| 12-2028 | 246 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 252 | 9% |
| 12-2030 | 257 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 266 | 9% |
| 12-2032 | 275 | 9% |
| 12-2033 | 282 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 295 | 9% |
with a 5-year average of $52 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 57 |
| 12-2026 | 61 |
| 12-2027 | 62 |
| 12-2028 | 64 |
| 12-2029 | 63 |
| 12-2030 | 65 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 104 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 159 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 375 | 77 | 59 | 11 | 228 |
| 2026 | 385 | 79 | 60 | 14 | 232 |
| 2027 | 399 | 82 | 62 | 13 | 242 |
| 2028 | 420 | 87 | 66 | 23 | 244 |
| 2029 | 428 | 89 | 68 | 11 | 261 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 63.76 | 48.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 71.25 | 66.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 51.59 | 20.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 61.50 | 43.4% |
Is Ipsos SA (IPS.PA) a buy or a sell? Ipsos SA is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Ipsos SA (IPS.PA) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 66.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $42.90.