As of June 16, 2025, Intelsat SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.00, this represents a potential upside of -702588.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -710262.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -702588.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.8% - 19.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1913 million in 12-2020 to $2631 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 1913 | 7% |
| 12-2021 | 1946 | 2% |
| 12-2022 | 2004 | 3% |
| 12-2023 | 2065 | 3% |
| 12-2024 | 2159 | 5% |
| 12-2025 | 2227 | 3% |
| 12-2026 | 2272 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 2425 | 7% |
| 12-2028 | 2529 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 2579 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 2631 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -48% in 12-2020 to -41% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | (909) | -48% |
| 12-2021 | (896) | -46% |
| 12-2022 | (902) | -45% |
| 12-2023 | (909) | -44% |
| 12-2024 | (930) | -43% |
| 12-2025 | (940) | -42% |
| 12-2026 | (954) | -42% |
| 12-2027 | (1,015) | -42% |
| 12-2028 | (1,054) | -42% |
| 12-2029 | (1,071) | -42% |
| 12-2030 | (1,088) | -41% |
with a 5-year average of $454 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 22% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 396 |
| 12-2022 | 391 |
| 12-2023 | 429 |
| 12-2024 | 477 |
| 12-2025 | 453 |
| 12-2026 | 467 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 80 |
| Days Inventory | 42 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2021 | 78 | (4) | 106 | (93) | 69 |
| 2022 | 326 | (15) | 436 | 76 | (171) |
| 2023 | 384 | (15) | 450 | 101 | (151) |
| 2024 | 451 | (15) | 470 | (57) | 53 |
| 2025 | 446 | (15) | 485 | 41 | (66) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -710262.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -702588.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | NaN% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | NaN% |
Is Intelsat SA (INTEQ) a buy or a sell? Intelsat SA is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Intelsat SA (INTEQ) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -702588.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.00.