As of June 4, 2025, Intel Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $20.29, this represents a potential upside of -231.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -245.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -231.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.6% - 9.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $53101 million in 12-2024 to $70993 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 53101 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 52863 | 0% |
| 12-2026 | 55379 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 57431 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 58579 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 59893 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 61360 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 62995 | 3% |
| 12-2032 | 64255 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 69601 | 8% |
| 12-2034 | 70993 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -36% in 12-2024 to -3% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (19,233) | -36% |
| 12-2025 | (7,817) | -15% |
| 12-2026 | (6,713) | -12% |
| 12-2027 | (5,507) | -10% |
| 12-2028 | (4,208) | -7% |
| 12-2029 | (2,934) | -5% |
| 12-2030 | (2,739) | -4% |
| 12-2031 | (2,542) | -4% |
| 12-2032 | (2,319) | -4% |
| 12-2033 | (2,219) | -3% |
| 12-2034 | (1,967) | -3% |
with a 5-year average of $21905 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 35% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 22749 |
| 12-2026 | 22595 |
| 12-2027 | 21641 |
| 12-2028 | 20629 |
| 12-2029 | 20071 |
| 12-2030 | 20671 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 24 |
| Days Inventory | 129 |
| Days Payables | 108 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 9688 | (1,172) | 14003 | 1669 | (4,811) |
| 2026 | 14067 | (1,342) | 19559 | (378) | (3,771) |
| 2027 | 14543 | (1,101) | 20283 | (264) | (4,376) |
| 2028 | 15080 | (841) | 20689 | 455 | (5,223) |
| 2029 | 16039 | (587) | 21153 | (104) | (4,423) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -245.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -231.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 19.51 | -3.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 11.15 | -45.1% |
Is Intel Corp (INTC) a buy or a sell? Intel Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Intel Corp (INTC) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -231.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $20.29.