What is INT's Intrinsic value?

World Fuel Services Corp (INT) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, World Fuel Services Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $22.48 to $48.54 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $37.14 +53.1%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $36.79 +51.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $22.48 -7.3%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $36.44 +50.2%
Earnings Power Value $48.54 +100.1%

Is World Fuel Services Corp (INT) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $24.26, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate World Fuel Services Corp's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.2% 4.7%
Equity market risk premium 5.0% 6.0%
Adjusted beta 0.58 0.62
Cost of equity 7.1% 8.9%
Cost of debt 8.5% 15.4%
Tax rate 24.7% 27.1%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.56 0.56
After-tax WACC 6.8% 9.7%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 8.3% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $59,043 (FY12-2022) to $63,201 (FY12-2032)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 0% to 0%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 0% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $37 $2,870M 77.9%
10-Year Growth $37 $2,891M 59.7%
5-Year EBITDA $24 $2,102M 69.8%
10-Year EBITDA $28 $2,306M 49.5%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 27.1%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 8.0%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0%
  • Fair value: $22.48 (-7.3% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 8.9% (Low) to 7.1% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0% (Low) to 4.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $19 to $54
  • Selected fair value: $36.44 (50.2% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $289M
Discount Rate (WACC) 9.7% - 6.8%
Enterprise Value $2,968M - $4,231M
Net Debt $584M
Equity Value $2,385M - $3,647M
Outstanding Shares 62M
Fair Value $38 - $59
Selected Fair Value $48.54

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1507M
Enterprise Value $2091M
Trailing P/E 13.20
Forward P/E 15.77
Trailing EV/EBITDA 6.95
Current Dividend Yield 205.67%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 17.61%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.56

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $11.14
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $9.20
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $4.50
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $5.47
Earnings Power Value 10% $4.85
Weighted Average 100% $35.16

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, World Fuel Services Corp's intrinsic value is $35.16, which is approximately 44.9% above the current market price of $24.26.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (0% to 0% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 17.61%

Given these factors, we believe World Fuel Services Corp is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.