As of June 9, 2025, Instem PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $575.33 per share. With the current market price at $830.00, this represents a potential upside of -30.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $398.10 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $575.33 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -52.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -30.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.8% - 9.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $58 million in 12-2022 to $165 million by 12-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 58 | 25% |
| 12-2023 | 66 | 15% |
| 12-2024 | 75 | 14% |
| 12-2025 | 84 | 12% |
| 12-2026 | 94 | 12% |
| 12-2027 | 103 | 10% |
| 12-2028 | 115 | 12% |
| 12-2029 | 128 | 11% |
| 12-2030 | 139 | 8% |
| 12-2031 | 150 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 165 | 10% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 8% in 12-2022 to 8% by 12-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 5 | 8% |
| 12-2023 | 6 | 8% |
| 12-2024 | 6 | 8% |
| 12-2025 | 7 | 8% |
| 12-2026 | 8 | 8% |
| 12-2027 | 9 | 8% |
| 12-2028 | 10 | 8% |
| 12-2029 | 11 | 8% |
| 12-2030 | 12 | 8% |
| 12-2031 | 13 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 14 | 8% |
with a 5-year average of $2 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 6% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 3 |
| 12-2024 | 3 |
| 12-2025 | 4 |
| 12-2026 | 4 |
| 12-2027 | 5 |
| 12-2028 | 5 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 91 |
| Days Inventory | 8 |
| Days Payables | 145 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2023 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2024 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| 2025 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 2026 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| 2027 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 398.10 | -52.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 575.33 | -30.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 408.80 | -50.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 533.03 | -35.8% |
Is Instem PLC (INS.L) a buy or a sell? Instem PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Instem PLC (INS.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -30.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $830.00.