As of May 28, 2025, indie Semiconductor Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $2.60, this represents a potential upside of -4158.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -1403.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -4158.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.6% - 11.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $217 million in 12-2024 to $5287 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 37.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 217 | 3% |
| 12-2025 | 237 | 9% |
| 12-2026 | 332 | 40% |
| 12-2027 | 506 | 52% |
| 12-2028 | 766 | 52% |
| 12-2029 | 1127 | 47% |
| 12-2030 | 1627 | 44% |
| 12-2031 | 2277 | 40% |
| 12-2032 | 3073 | 35% |
| 12-2033 | 4087 | 33% |
| 12-2034 | 5287 | 29% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -67% in 12-2024 to -51% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (144) | -67% |
| 12-2025 | (151) | -64% |
| 12-2026 | (202) | -61% |
| 12-2027 | (295) | -58% |
| 12-2028 | (428) | -56% |
| 12-2029 | (603) | -54% |
| 12-2030 | (863) | -53% |
| 12-2031 | (1,198) | -53% |
| 12-2032 | (1,604) | -52% |
| 12-2033 | (2,116) | -52% |
| 12-2034 | (2,714) | -51% |
with a 5-year average of $8 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 6% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 11 |
| 12-2026 | 14 |
| 12-2027 | 19 |
| 12-2028 | 26 |
| 12-2029 | 37 |
| 12-2030 | 54 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 93 |
| Days Inventory | 105 |
| Days Payables | 73 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | (102) | (2) | 11 | (1) | (111) |
| 2026 | (183) | (3) | 21 | 36 | (237) |
| 2027 | (269) | (4) | 32 | 52 | (348) |
| 2028 | (391) | (6) | 48 | 77 | (511) |
| 2029 | (550) | (8) | 70 | 113 | (725) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1403.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -4158.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is indie Semiconductor Inc (INDI) a buy or a sell? indie Semiconductor Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, indie Semiconductor Inc (INDI) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -4158.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $2.60.