What is IMV.TO's DCF valuation?

IMV Inc (IMV.TO) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 3, 2025, IMV Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $1.12, this represents a potential upside of -27502.9%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -20898.0%
Potential Upside (10-year) -27502.9%
Discount Rate (WACC) 4.3% - 4.9%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2022 0 75%
12-2023 0 5%
12-2024 0 12%
12-2025 0 12%
12-2026 0 9%
12-2027 1 9%
12-2028 1 9%
12-2029 1 12%
12-2030 1 9%
12-2031 1 8%
12-2032 1 8%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -11547% in 12-2022 to -6842% by 12-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2022 (38) -11547%
12-2023 (29) -2940%
12-2024 (33) -3296%
12-2025 (37) -3696%
12-2026 (40) -4022%
12-2027 (44) -4371%
12-2028 (48) -4754%
12-2029 (53) -5325%
12-2030 (58) -5824%
12-2031 (63) -6317%
12-2032 (68) -6842%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 201% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2023 1
12-2024 1
12-2025 1
12-2026 1
12-2027 1
12-2028 1

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 861
Days Inventory 0
Days Payables 0

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
2023 (39) (11) 1 4 (34)
2024 (44) (12) 1 (1) (33)
2025 (50) (13) 1 0 (37)
2026 (54) (15) 1 0 (41)
2027 (59) (16) 1 (0) (44)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 4.3% - 4.9%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 2.5% - 4.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 35.1x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -20898.0%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -27502.9%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(2,720)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(3,587)M

Investment Conclusion

Is IMV Inc (IMV.TO) a buy or a sell? IMV Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, IMV Inc (IMV.TO) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -27502.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -11547% to -6842%)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $1.12.