What is IH's Intrinsic value?

Ihuman Inc (IH) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 29, 2025, Ihuman Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $2.83 to $10.58 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $7.09 +199.8%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $6.17 +161.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $3.57 +50.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $2.83 +19.5%
Earnings Power Value $10.58 +347.6%

Is Ihuman Inc (IH) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $2.36, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Ihuman Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.77 0.89
Cost of equity 7.4% 9.8%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 7.0% 10.8%
Debt/Equity ratio 1 1
After-tax WACC 6.0% 7.2%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.6% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $922 (FY12-2024) to $1,708 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 11% to 11%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 2% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $44 $2,266M 75.4%
10-Year Growth $51 $2,603M 58.6%
5-Year EBITDA $48 $2,478M 77.5%
10-Year EBITDA $54 $2,759M 60.9%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 8.6%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $3.57 (50.9% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 9.8% (Low) to 7.4% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $14 to $27
  • Selected fair value: $2.83 (19.5% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $254M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.2% - 6.0%
Enterprise Value $3,554M - $4,218M
Net Debt $0M
Equity Value $3,554M - $4,218M
Outstanding Shares 51M
Fair Value $70 - $82
Selected Fair Value $10.58

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $121M
Enterprise Value $121M
Trailing P/E 8.86
Forward P/E 6.49
Trailing EV/EBITDA 13.50
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.88

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $2.13
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $1.54
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $0.71
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $0.42
Earnings Power Value 10% $1.06
Weighted Average 100% $5.87

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Ihuman Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $5.87, which is approximately 148.1% above the current market price of $2.36.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (11% to 11% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Ihuman Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.