What is IGE.L's Intrinsic value?

Image Scan Holdings PLC (IGE.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 22, 2025, Image Scan Holdings PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.23 to $4.49 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $3.80 +162.1%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $2.42 +66.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $3.71 +156.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $4.49 +209.9%
Earnings Power Value $0.23 -84.2%

Is Image Scan Holdings PLC (IGE.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $1.45, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Image Scan Holdings PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.33 0.44
Cost of equity 6.0% 8.0%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 22.3% 24.2%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.07 0.07
After-tax WACC 5.8% 7.8%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.8% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $3 (FY09-2024) to $8 (FY09-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 7% to 6%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 4% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $2 $2M 85.4%
10-Year Growth $4 $4M 76.5%
5-Year EBITDA $3 $4M 90.3%
10-Year EBITDA $4 $5M 78.1%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.0%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0%
  • Fair value: $3.71 (156.0% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 8.0% (Low) to 6.0% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0% (Low) to 4.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $2 to $7
  • Selected fair value: $4.49 (209.9% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $(0)M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.8% - 5.8%
Enterprise Value $(0)M - $(1)M
Net Debt $(1)M
Equity Value $0M - $0M
Outstanding Shares 1M
Fair Value $0 - $0
Selected Fair Value $0.23

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $2M
Enterprise Value $1M
Trailing P/E 9.30
Forward P/E 9.40
Trailing EV/EBITDA 9.05
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.07

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $1.14
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $0.61
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $0.74
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $0.67
Earnings Power Value 10% $0.02
Weighted Average 100% $3.18

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Image Scan Holdings PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $3.18, which is approximately 119.6% above the current market price of $1.45.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (7% to 6% margin)
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.07)

Given these factors, we believe Image Scan Holdings PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.