What is IEX.AS's Intrinsic value?

IEX Group NV (IEX.AS) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 23, 2025, IEX Group NV's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $3.86 to $6.67 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $6.67 +241.9%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $5.52 +183.2%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $3.86 +98.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $5.41 +177.6%
Earnings Power Value $6.49 +232.8%

Is IEX Group NV (IEX.AS) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $1.95, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate IEX Group NV's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.6% 3.1%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.56 0.81
Cost of equity 5.4% 8.5%
Cost of debt 4.0% 11.9%
Tax rate 11.3% 12.8%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.15 0.15
After-tax WACC 5.2% 8.8%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.0% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $5 (FY12-2023) to $8 (FY12-2033)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 27% to 21%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 4% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $6 $20M 75.6%
10-Year Growth $7 $25M 58.7%
5-Year EBITDA $3 $11M 55.4%
10-Year EBITDA $4 $16M 36.1%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.0%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $3.86 (98.0% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 8.5% (Low) to 5.4% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $3 to $8
  • Selected fair value: $5.41 (177.6% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $2M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.8% - 5.2%
Enterprise Value $18M - $30M
Net Debt $(1)M
Equity Value $19M - $32M
Outstanding Shares 4M
Fair Value $5 - $8
Selected Fair Value $6.49

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $8M
Enterprise Value $6M
Trailing P/E 5.14
Forward P/E 6.68
Trailing EV/EBITDA 4.75
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.15

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $2.00
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $1.38
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $0.77
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $0.81
Earnings Power Value 10% $0.65
Weighted Average 100% $5.61

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, IEX Group NV's weighted average intrinsic value is $5.61, which is approximately 187.9% above the current market price of $1.95.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (27% to 21% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.15)

Given these factors, we believe IEX Group NV is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.