What is IDH.L's Intrinsic value?

Immunodiagnostic Systems Holdings PLC (IDH.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 28, 2025, Immunodiagnostic Systems Holdings PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $90.70 to $226.77 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $226.77 -40.0%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $219.01 -42.1%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $163.07 -56.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $90.70 -76.0%
Earnings Power Value $130.29 -65.5%

Is Immunodiagnostic Systems Holdings PLC (IDH.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $378.00, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Immunodiagnostic Systems Holdings PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.9% 3.4%
Equity market risk premium 5.3% 6.3%
Adjusted beta 0.65 0.82
Cost of equity 6.4% 9.2%
Cost of debt 7.0% 8.8%
Tax rate 10.1% 20.4%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.03 0.03
After-tax WACC 6.4% 9.1%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.8% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $39 (FY03-2020) to $42 (FY03-2030)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 9% to 11%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 12% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $219 $43M 72.0%
10-Year Growth $227 $45M 55.2%
5-Year EBITDA $334 $76M 84.2%
10-Year EBITDA $329 $74M 73.0%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 50.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.8%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $163.07 (-56.9% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 9.2% (Low) to 6.4% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $45 to $137
  • Selected fair value: $90.70 (-76.0% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $1M
Discount Rate (WACC) 9.1% - 6.4%
Enterprise Value $14M - $20M
Net Debt $(20)M
Equity Value $35M - $40M
Outstanding Shares 0M
Fair Value $120 - $141
Selected Fair Value $130.29

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $109M
Enterprise Value $88M
Trailing P/E 72.68
Forward P/E 47.06
Trailing EV/EBITDA 12.05
Current Dividend Yield 68.75%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -30.79%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.03

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $68.03
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $54.75
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $32.61
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $13.60
Earnings Power Value 10% $13.03
Weighted Average 100% $182.03

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Immunodiagnostic Systems Holdings PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $182.03, which is approximately 51.8% below the current market price of $378.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (9% to 11% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.03)

Given these factors, we believe Immunodiagnostic Systems Holdings PLC is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.