What is ICAD.PA's Intrinsic value?

Icade SA (ICAD.PA) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of April 4, 2026, Icade SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $14.56 to $14.56 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $14.56 -27.4%

Is Icade SA (ICAD.PA) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $20.04, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Icade SA's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.0% 3.5%
Equity market risk premium 5.8% 6.8%
Adjusted beta 0.58 0.98
Cost of equity 6.4% 10.6%
Cost of debt 4.0% 5.2%
Tax rate 5.2% 8.9%
Debt/Equity ratio 2.84 2.84
After-tax WACC 4.5% 6.3%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 5.4% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $1,450 (FY12-2025) to $426 (FY12-2035)
  • Net profit margin expansion from -9% to -7%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 29% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $15 $4,604M 84.3%
10-Year Growth $(1,234) $3,004M 69.4%
5-Year EBITDA $(1,234) $3,415M 78.9%
10-Year EBITDA $(1,234) $2,854M 67.8%

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1528M
Enterprise Value $5022M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 18.30
Current Dividend Yield 2138.58%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 13.61%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 2.84

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 100% $3.64
Weighted Average 100% $14.56

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Icade SA's intrinsic value is $14.56, which is approximately 27.4% below the current market price of $20.04.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-9% to -7% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 13.61%

Given these factors, we believe Icade SA is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.