What is IAIC's Intrinsic value?

Information Analysis Inc (IAIC) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Information Analysis Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.09 to $0.84 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $0.72 -83.2%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $0.54 -87.4%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $0.45 -89.4%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $0.84 -80.4%
Earnings Power Value $0.09 -97.9%

Is Information Analysis Inc (IAIC) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $4.28, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Information Analysis Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.2% 3.7%
Equity market risk premium 4.2% 5.2%
Adjusted beta 0.67 0.85
Cost of equity 6.0% 8.6%
Cost of debt 4.0% 4.5%
Tax rate 27.0% 27.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.01 0.01
After-tax WACC 6.0% 8.6%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.3% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $14 (FY12-2020) to $30 (FY12-2030)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 3% to 2%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 0% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $1 $5M 78.8%
10-Year Growth $1 $8M 67.1%
5-Year EBITDA $1 $10M 88.8%
10-Year EBITDA $1 $11M 77.8%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.3%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $0.45 (-89.4% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 8.6% (Low) to 6.0% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $0 to $1
  • Selected fair value: $0.84 (-80.4% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $(0)M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.6% - 6.0%
Enterprise Value $(1)M - $(1)M
Net Debt $(2)M
Equity Value $1M - $1M
Outstanding Shares 14M
Fair Value $0 - $0
Selected Fair Value $0.09

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $58M
Enterprise Value $56M
Trailing P/E 100.03
Forward P/E 171.39
Trailing EV/EBITDA 18.75
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.01

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $0.22
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $0.13
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $0.09
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $0.13
Earnings Power Value 10% $0.01
Weighted Average 100% $0.58

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Information Analysis Inc's intrinsic value is $0.58, which is approximately 86.5% below the current market price of $4.28.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (3% to 2% margin)
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.01)

Given these factors, we believe Information Analysis Inc is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.