As of June 21, 2025, MarineMax Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $21.34 to $119.83 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $119.83 | +374.6% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $113.57 | +349.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $48.39 | +91.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $26.65 | +5.5% |
| Earnings Power Value | $21.34 | -15.5% |
Is MarineMax Inc (HZO) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $25.25, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate MarineMax Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.49 | 1.8 |
| Cost of equity | 10.7% | 14.9% |
| Cost of debt | 9.1% | 10.9% |
| Tax rate | 24.6% | 25.1% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 2.14 | 2.14 |
| After-tax WACC | 8.1% | 10.3% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $114 | $3,429M | 78.5% |
| 10-Year Growth | $120 | $3,564M | 59.2% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $67 | $2,439M | 69.7% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $87 | $2,866M | 49.2% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $131M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.3% - 8.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,274M - $1,624M |
| Net Debt | $991M |
| Equity Value | $283M - $633M |
| Outstanding Shares | 21M |
| Fair Value | $13 - $29 |
| Selected Fair Value | $21.34 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $542M |
| Enterprise Value | $1533M |
| Trailing P/E | 9.53 |
| Forward P/E | 8.27 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 7.50 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 2.14 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $35.95 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $28.39 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $9.68 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $4.00 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $2.13 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $80.15 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, MarineMax Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $80.15, which is approximately 217.4% above the current market price of $25.25.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe MarineMax Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.