As of April 4, 2026, MarineMax Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $36.84 per share. With the current market price at $27.17, this represents a potential upside of 35.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $32.84 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $36.84 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 20.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 35.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.8% - 12.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2309 million in 09-2025 to $3289 million by 09-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2025 | 2309 | 5% |
| 09-2026 | 2378 | 3% |
| 09-2027 | 2469 | 4% |
| 09-2028 | 2550 | 3% |
| 09-2029 | 2601 | 2% |
| 09-2030 | 2715 | 4% |
| 09-2031 | 2899 | 7% |
| 09-2032 | 2981 | 3% |
| 09-2033 | 3108 | 4% |
| 09-2034 | 3225 | 4% |
| 09-2035 | 3289 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -1% in 09-2025 to 4% by 09-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2025 | (31) | -1% |
| 09-2026 | (5) | 0% |
| 09-2027 | 20 | 1% |
| 09-2028 | 45 | 2% |
| 09-2029 | 71 | 3% |
| 09-2030 | 100 | 4% |
| 09-2031 | 107 | 4% |
| 09-2032 | 110 | 4% |
| 09-2033 | 114 | 4% |
| 09-2034 | 118 | 4% |
| 09-2035 | 121 | 4% |
with a 5-year average of $54 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 09-2026 | 60 |
| 09-2027 | 60 |
| 09-2028 | 59 |
| 09-2029 | 59 |
| 09-2030 | 59 |
| 09-2031 | 62 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 13 |
| Days Inventory | 199 |
| Days Payables | 14 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2026 | 95 | (1) | 42 | (13) | 68 |
| 2027 | 162 | 6 | 58 | 37 | 61 |
| 2028 | 198 | 15 | 59 | 9 | 114 |
| 2029 | 233 | 23 | 61 | (3) | 152 |
| 2030 | 275 | 33 | 63 | 27 | 152 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 32.84 | 20.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 36.84 | 35.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 38.03 | 40.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 45.21 | 66.4% |
Is MarineMax Inc (HZO) a buy or a sell? MarineMax Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, MarineMax Inc (HZO) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 35.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $27.17.