As of May 27, 2025, Harworth Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $26.80 to $322.88 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $137.83 | -20.6% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $96.63 | -44.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $137.63 | -20.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $322.88 | +86.1% |
| Earnings Power Value | $26.80 | -84.6% |
Is Harworth Group PLC (HWG.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $173.50, the stock appears to be moderately overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Harworth Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.38 | 0.49 |
| Cost of equity | 6.2% | 8.4% |
| Cost of debt | 5.2% | 8.4% |
| Tax rate | 20.6% | 23.1% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.8% | 8.0% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $97 | $366M | 65.2% |
| 10-Year Growth | $138 | $502M | 59.2% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $120 | $442M | 71.1% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $142 | $516M | 60.3% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $9M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.0% - 5.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $114M - $158M |
| Net Debt | $48M |
| Equity Value | $66M - $110M |
| Outstanding Shares | 3M |
| Fair Value | $20 - $33 |
| Selected Fair Value | $26.80 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $571M |
| Enterprise Value | $619M |
| Trailing P/E | 9.98 |
| Forward P/E | 12.75 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 9.80 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 85.80% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 46.04% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.29 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $41.35 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $24.16 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $27.53 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $48.43 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $2.68 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $144.14 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Harworth Group PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $144.14, which is approximately 16.9% below the current market price of $173.50.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Harworth Group PLC is currently moderately overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.