As of June 12, 2025, Heavitree Brewery PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $366.61 to $645.13 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $645.13 | +200.1% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $600.45 | +179.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $366.61 | +70.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $399.19 | +85.7% |
| Earnings Power Value | $610.65 | +184.0% |
Is Heavitree Brewery PLC (HVT.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $215.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Heavitree Brewery PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.44 | 0.74 |
| Cost of equity | 6.6% | 10.2% |
| Cost of debt | 4.9% | 5.2% |
| Tax rate | 16.9% | 21.9% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.1% | 8.8% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $600 | $24M | 71.1% |
| 10-Year Growth | $645 | $26M | 52.2% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $585 | $24M | 70.4% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $640 | $26M | 51.9% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $2M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.8% - 6.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $20M - $29M |
| Net Debt | $2M |
| Equity Value | $18M - $28M |
| Outstanding Shares | 0M |
| Fair Value | $490 - $731 |
| Selected Fair Value | $610.65 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $8M |
| Enterprise Value | $10M |
| Trailing P/E | 6.15 |
| Forward P/E | 6.06 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 7.75 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 342.79% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 308.33% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.29 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $193.54 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $150.11 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $73.32 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $59.88 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $61.07 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $537.92 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Heavitree Brewery PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $537.92, which is approximately 150.2% above the current market price of $215.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Heavitree Brewery PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.