As of May 23, 2025, Hurricane Energy PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $3.09 to $36.75 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $13.02 | +67.1% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $14.01 | +79.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $3.09 | -60.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $36.75 | +371.8% |
| Earnings Power Value | $20.31 | +160.7% |
Is Hurricane Energy PLC (HUR.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $7.79, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Hurricane Energy PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.67 | 1.31 |
| Cost of equity | 8.0% | 14.1% |
| Cost of debt | 4.6% | 6.4% |
| Tax rate | 1.0% | 4.7% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.7% | 13.6% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $19 | $285M | 43.2% |
| 10-Year Growth | $17 | $259M | 22.9% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $14 | $184M | 12.2% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $15 | $211M | 5.7% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $44M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 13.6% - 7.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $328M - $575M |
| Net Debt | $(85)M |
| Equity Value | $413M - $660M |
| Outstanding Shares | 20M |
| Fair Value | $21 - $33 |
| Selected Fair Value | $20.31 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $155M |
| Enterprise Value | $91M |
| Trailing P/E | 1.89 |
| Forward P/E | 2.94 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 1.35 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.08 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $3.90 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $3.50 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $0.62 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $5.51 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $2.03 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $15.57 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Hurricane Energy PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $15.57, which is approximately 99.9% above the current market price of $7.79.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Hurricane Energy PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.