As of May 31, 2025, Hurricane Energy PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $12.75 per share. With the current market price at $7.79, this represents a potential upside of 63.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $13.72 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $12.75 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 76.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 63.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.7% - 13.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $311 million in 12-2022 to $44 million by 12-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately -17.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 311 | 29% |
| 12-2023 | 200 | -36% |
| 12-2024 | 35 | -83% |
| 12-2025 | 36 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 37 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 38 | 3% |
| 12-2028 | 39 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 41 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 42 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 43 | 3% |
| 12-2032 | 44 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 35% in 12-2022 to 35% by 12-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 109 | 35% |
| 12-2023 | 70 | 35% |
| 12-2024 | 12 | 35% |
| 12-2025 | 12 | 35% |
| 12-2026 | 13 | 35% |
| 12-2027 | 13 | 35% |
| 12-2028 | 14 | 35% |
| 12-2029 | 14 | 35% |
| 12-2030 | 15 | 35% |
| 12-2031 | 15 | 35% |
| 12-2032 | 16 | 35% |
with a 5-year average of $69 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 18% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 34 |
| 12-2024 | 24 |
| 12-2025 | 13 |
| 12-2026 | 13 |
| 12-2027 | 12 |
| 12-2028 | 7 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 39 |
| Days Inventory | 34 |
| Days Payables | 8 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 114 | 1 | 36 | 4 | 73 |
| 2024 | 38 | 0 | 6 | (26) | 57 |
| 2025 | 28 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 21 |
| 2026 | 28 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 20 |
| 2027 | 28 | 0 | 7 | (0) | 21 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 13.72 | 76.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 12.75 | 63.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 9.95 | 27.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 10.97 | 40.9% |
Is Hurricane Energy PLC (HUR.L) a buy or a sell? Hurricane Energy PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Hurricane Energy PLC (HUR.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 63.6%.
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $7.79.