What is HUBN.SW's Intrinsic value?

Huber+Suhner AG (HUBN.SW) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 10, 2025, Huber+Suhner AG's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $57.69 to $112.88 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $112.88 +39.2%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $110.61 +36.4%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $57.69 -28.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $69.39 -14.4%
Earnings Power Value $61.96 -23.6%

Is Huber+Suhner AG (HUBN.SW) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $81.10, the stock appears to be moderately undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Huber+Suhner AG's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 1.0% 1.5%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 1.2 1.37
Cost of equity 7.1% 10.3%
Cost of debt 4.0% 4.5%
Tax rate 14.3% 15.1%
Debt/Equity ratio 1 1
After-tax WACC 5.3% 7.1%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.2% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $894 (FY12-2024) to $1,468 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 8% to 8%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 5% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $111 $1,948M 85.1%
10-Year Growth $113 $1,992M 72.6%
5-Year EBITDA $72 $1,212M 76.0%
10-Year EBITDA $83 $1,417M 61.5%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 44.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 8.7%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0%
  • Fair value: $57.69 (-28.9% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 10.3% (Low) to 7.1% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0% (Low) to 4.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $31 to $108
  • Selected fair value: $69.39 (-14.4% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $61M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.1% - 5.3%
Enterprise Value $866M - $1,164M
Net Debt $(174)M
Equity Value $1,040M - $1,338M
Outstanding Shares 19M
Fair Value $54 - $70
Selected Fair Value $61.96

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1556M
Enterprise Value $1382M
Trailing P/E 21.80
Forward P/E 20.32
Trailing EV/EBITDA 8.15
Current Dividend Yield 201.68%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.18%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 1.08

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $33.86
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $27.65
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $11.54
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $10.41
Earnings Power Value 10% $6.20
Weighted Average 100% $89.66

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Huber+Suhner AG's weighted average intrinsic value is $89.66, which is approximately 10.6% above the current market price of $81.10.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (8% to 8% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 0.18%

Given these factors, we believe Huber+Suhner AG is currently moderately undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.