As of May 27, 2025, Harsco Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $25.32 per share. With the current market price at $9.15, this represents a potential upside of 176.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $13.14 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $25.32 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 43.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 176.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 13.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1889 million in 12-2022 to $2680 million by 12-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 1889 | 2% |
| 12-2023 | 1973 | 4% |
| 12-2024 | 2061 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 2102 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 2189 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 2237 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 2282 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 2327 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 2500 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 2581 | 3% |
| 12-2032 | 2680 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -7% in 12-2022 to 13% by 12-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | (133) | -7% |
| 12-2023 | (40) | -2% |
| 12-2024 | 26 | 1% |
| 12-2025 | 92 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 161 | 7% |
| 12-2027 | 227 | 10% |
| 12-2028 | 244 | 11% |
| 12-2029 | 261 | 11% |
| 12-2030 | 294 | 12% |
| 12-2031 | 317 | 12% |
| 12-2032 | 342 | 13% |
. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 5% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 103 |
| 12-2024 | 123 |
| 12-2025 | 120 |
| 12-2026 | 110 |
| 12-2027 | 105 |
| 12-2028 | 108 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 79 |
| Days Inventory | 29 |
| Days Payables | 53 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 130 | (8) | 98 | 185 | (145) |
| 2024 | 233 | 5 | 103 | (54) | 179 |
| 2025 | 310 | 18 | 105 | 0 | 187 |
| 2026 | 385 | 31 | 109 | 50 | 195 |
| 2027 | 460 | 43 | 111 | (6) | 312 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 13.14 | 43.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 25.32 | 176.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 13.79 | 50.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 24.02 | 162.5% |
Is Harsco Corp (HSC) a buy or a sell? Harsco Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Harsco Corp (HSC) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 176.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $9.15.