As of May 22, 2025, Honeywell International Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $347.12 per share. With the current market price at $221.87, this represents a potential upside of 56.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $284.55 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $347.12 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 28.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 56.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.7% - 9.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $38498 million in 12-2024 to $65289 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 38498 | 5% |
| 12-2025 | 41485 | 8% |
| 12-2026 | 43818 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 46667 | 7% |
| 12-2028 | 50289 | 8% |
| 12-2029 | 53329 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 54396 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 55484 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 58382 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 61937 | 6% |
| 12-2034 | 65289 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 15% in 12-2024 to 28% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 5740 | 15% |
| 12-2025 | 7176 | 17% |
| 12-2026 | 8600 | 20% |
| 12-2027 | 10192 | 22% |
| 12-2028 | 12041 | 24% |
| 12-2029 | 13834 | 26% |
| 12-2030 | 14318 | 26% |
| 12-2031 | 14812 | 27% |
| 12-2032 | 15803 | 27% |
| 12-2033 | 16994 | 27% |
| 12-2034 | 18152 | 28% |
with a 5-year average of $954 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 995 |
| 12-2026 | 1051 |
| 12-2027 | 1148 |
| 12-2028 | 1209 |
| 12-2029 | 1262 |
| 12-2030 | 1332 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 75 |
| Days Inventory | 94 |
| Days Payables | 104 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 8043 | 1411 | 834 | 384 | 5414 |
| 2026 | 12615 | 2255 | 1174 | 476 | 8710 |
| 2027 | 14768 | 2672 | 1250 | 604 | 10241 |
| 2028 | 17221 | 3157 | 1347 | 712 | 12005 |
| 2029 | 19587 | 3627 | 1429 | 620 | 13911 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 284.55 | 28.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 347.12 | 56.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 299.35 | 34.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 355.11 | 60.1% |
Is Honeywell International Inc (HON) a buy or a sell? Honeywell International Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Honeywell International Inc (HON) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 56.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $221.87.