As of October 18, 2025, Honeywell International Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $336.15 per share. With the current market price at $202.96, this represents a potential upside of 65.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $266.83 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $336.15 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 31.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 65.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.8% - 10.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $38498 million in 12-2024 to $63178 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 38498 | 5% |
| 12-2025 | 41572 | 8% |
| 12-2026 | 44285 | 7% |
| 12-2027 | 45349 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 47016 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 50776 | 8% |
| 12-2030 | 53874 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 57217 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 58361 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 61257 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 63178 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 15% in 12-2024 to 28% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 5740 | 15% |
| 12-2025 | 7191 | 17% |
| 12-2026 | 8692 | 20% |
| 12-2027 | 9904 | 22% |
| 12-2028 | 11257 | 24% |
| 12-2029 | 13172 | 26% |
| 12-2030 | 14180 | 26% |
| 12-2031 | 15275 | 27% |
| 12-2032 | 15798 | 27% |
| 12-2033 | 16807 | 27% |
| 12-2034 | 17565 | 28% |
with a 5-year average of $954 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 996 |
| 12-2026 | 1054 |
| 12-2027 | 1144 |
| 12-2028 | 1188 |
| 12-2029 | 1227 |
| 12-2030 | 1293 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 75 |
| Days Inventory | 94 |
| Days Payables | 104 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 5372 | 943 | 557 | 264 | 3608 |
| 2026 | 12741 | 2279 | 1186 | 549 | 8727 |
| 2027 | 14379 | 2597 | 1215 | 262 | 10305 |
| 2028 | 16157 | 2951 | 1260 | 335 | 11611 |
| 2029 | 18674 | 3453 | 1360 | 757 | 13104 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 266.83 | 31.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 336.15 | 65.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 257.02 | 26.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 321.10 | 58.2% |
Is Honeywell International Inc (HON) a buy or a sell? Honeywell International Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Honeywell International Inc (HON) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 65.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $202.96.