As of June 16, 2025, Neinor Homes SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $9.99 per share. With the current market price at $13.62, this represents a potential upside of -26.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $14.15 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $9.99 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 3.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -26.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.5% - 10.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $487 million in 12-2024 to $912 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 487 | 18% |
| 12-2025 | 692 | 42% |
| 12-2026 | 706 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 720 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 735 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 749 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 765 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 811 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 840 | 3% |
| 12-2033 | 877 | 4% |
| 12-2034 | 912 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 13% in 12-2024 to 18% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 62 | 13% |
| 12-2025 | 97 | 14% |
| 12-2026 | 107 | 15% |
| 12-2027 | 117 | 16% |
| 12-2028 | 128 | 17% |
| 12-2029 | 138 | 18% |
| 12-2030 | 141 | 18% |
| 12-2031 | 150 | 18% |
| 12-2032 | 155 | 18% |
| 12-2033 | 162 | 18% |
| 12-2034 | 168 | 18% |
with a 5-year average of $1 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 1 |
| 12-2026 | 2 |
| 12-2027 | 1 |
| 12-2028 | 1 |
| 12-2029 | 1 |
| 12-2030 | 2 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 29 |
| Days Inventory | 852 |
| Days Payables | 129 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 94 | 22 | 1 | 158 | (88) |
| 2026 | 106 | 25 | 1 | 84 | (5) |
| 2027 | 117 | 27 | 1 | 7 | 81 |
| 2028 | 130 | 29 | 2 | (31) | 130 |
| 2029 | 142 | 32 | 2 | 20 | 89 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 14.15 | 3.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 9.99 | -26.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 10.05 | -26.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 11.37 | -16.5% |
Is Neinor Homes SA (HOME.MC) a buy or a sell? Neinor Homes SA is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Neinor Homes SA (HOME.MC) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -26.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $13.62.