What is HOCN.SW's Intrinsic value?

Hochdorf Holding AG (HOCN.SW) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 3, 2025, Hochdorf Holding AG's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $457.87 to $457.87 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Earnings Power Value $457.87 +29063.9%

Is Hochdorf Holding AG (HOCN.SW) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $1.57, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Hochdorf Holding AG's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 1.0% 1.5%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.43 0.55
Cost of equity 4.6% 6.8%
Cost of debt 5.7% 7.0%
Tax rate 1.9% 15.9%
Debt/Equity ratio 1 1
After-tax WACC 5.1% 6.4%

Valuation Methods

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $55M
Discount Rate (WACC) 6.4% - 5.1%
Enterprise Value $861M - $1,076M
Net Debt $(16)M
Equity Value $877M - $1,092M
Outstanding Shares 2M
Fair Value $408 - $508
Selected Fair Value $457.87

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $3M
Enterprise Value $-12M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 8.55
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -100.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 1.10

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Earnings Power Value 100% $45.79
Weighted Average 100% $457.87

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Hochdorf Holding AG's weighted average intrinsic value is $457.87, which is approximately 29063.9% above the current market price of $1.57.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-74% to -54% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Hochdorf Holding AG is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.