What is HLN.L's Intrinsic value?

HALEON PLC (HLN.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, HALEON PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $219.69 to $479.65 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $479.65 +33.8%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $414.78 +15.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $303.20 -15.4%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $347.42 -3.1%
Earnings Power Value $219.69 -38.7%

Is HALEON PLC (HLN.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $358.50, the stock appears to be fairly valued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate HALEON PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.46 0.54
Cost of equity 6.8% 8.8%
Cost of debt 5.1% 6.8%
Tax rate 24.6% 27.8%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.32 0.32
After-tax WACC 6.0% 7.8%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.9% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $11,233 (FY12-2024) to $18,817 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 13% to 13%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 3% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $415 $44,846M 83.8%
10-Year Growth $480 $50,640M 70.6%
5-Year EBITDA $213 $26,816M 73.0%
10-Year EBITDA $287 $33,413M 55.4%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 41.4%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.8%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0%
  • Fair value: $303.20 (-15.4% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 8.8% (Low) to 6.8% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0% (Low) to 4.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $167 to $528
  • Selected fair value: $347.42 (-3.1% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $1,872M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.8% - 6.0%
Enterprise Value $23,903M - $30,943M
Net Debt $7,803M
Equity Value $16,100M - $23,140M
Outstanding Shares 89M
Fair Value $180 - $259
Selected Fair Value $219.69

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $32017M
Enterprise Value $39820M
Trailing P/E 22.20
Forward P/E 21.55
Trailing EV/EBITDA 8.80
Current Dividend Yield 186.47%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.32

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $143.90
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $103.69
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $60.64
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $52.11
Earnings Power Value 10% $21.97
Weighted Average 100% $382.31

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, HALEON PLC's intrinsic value is $382.31, which is approximately 6.6% above the current market price of $358.50.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (13% to 13% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe HALEON PLC is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.