As of June 7, 2025, Helios Technologies Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $12.22 to $33.82 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $33.82 | +4.6% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $33.82 | +4.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $17.66 | -45.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $12.22 | -62.2% |
| Earnings Power Value | $27.86 | -13.8% |
Is Helios Technologies Inc (HLIO) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $32.34, the stock appears to be moderately overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Helios Technologies Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.41 | 1.46 |
| Cost of equity | 10.4% | 13.1% |
| Cost of debt | 4.9% | 7.0% |
| Tax rate | 21.8% | 23.2% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| After-tax WACC | 8.4% | 10.7% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $34 | $1,524M | 75.2% |
| 10-Year Growth | $34 | $1,524M | 55.2% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $37 | $1,633M | 76.8% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $37 | $1,616M | 57.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $125M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.7% - 8.4% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,164M - $1,487M |
| Net Debt | $397M |
| Equity Value | $767M - $1,090M |
| Outstanding Shares | 33M |
| Fair Value | $23 - $33 |
| Selected Fair Value | $27.86 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $1078M |
| Enterprise Value | $1475M |
| Trailing P/E | 29.05 |
| Forward P/E | 24.58 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 12.35 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 117.76% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.64% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.44 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $10.15 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $8.45 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $3.53 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $1.83 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $2.79 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $26.75 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Helios Technologies Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $26.75, which is approximately 17.3% below the current market price of $32.34.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Helios Technologies Inc is currently moderately overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.