As of May 23, 2025, High Liner Foods Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $20.33 to $95.83 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $49.99 | +178.0% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $20.33 | +13.1% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $32.47 | +80.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $95.83 | +433.0% |
| Earnings Power Value | $55.98 | +211.4% |
Is High Liner Foods Inc (HLF.TO) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $17.98, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate High Liner Foods Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| Cost of equity | 5.7% | 7.6% |
| Cost of debt | 5.4% | 5.6% |
| Tax rate | 15.7% | 18.7% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.2% | 6.4% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $15 | $645M | 87.2% |
| 10-Year Growth | $36 | $1,266M | 80.0% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $14 | $618M | 86.7% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $18 | $737M | 65.6% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $80M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.4% - 5.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,254M - $1,528M |
| Net Debt | $219M |
| Equity Value | $1,035M - $1,309M |
| Outstanding Shares | 29M |
| Fair Value | $35 - $45 |
| Selected Fair Value | $55.98 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $526M |
| Enterprise Value | $832M |
| Trailing P/E | 6.21 |
| Forward P/E | 15.27 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 7.80 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 357.14% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 15.27% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.67 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $15.00 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $5.08 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $6.49 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $14.38 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $5.60 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $46.55 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, High Liner Foods Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $46.55, which is approximately 158.9% above the current market price of $17.98.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe High Liner Foods Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.