As of May 23, 2025, Haldex AB has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $95.90 per share. With the current market price at $65.50, this represents a potential upside of 46.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $71.48 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $95.90 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 9.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 46.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.1% - 7.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $4612 million in 12-2021 to $6940 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 4612 | 15% |
| 12-2022 | 4881 | 6% |
| 12-2023 | 5283 | 8% |
| 12-2024 | 5710 | 8% |
| 12-2025 | 5864 | 3% |
| 12-2026 | 6037 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 6166 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 6344 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 6471 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 6741 | 4% |
| 12-2031 | 6940 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 5% in 12-2021 to 4% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 228 | 5% |
| 12-2022 | 185 | 4% |
| 12-2023 | 201 | 4% |
| 12-2024 | 217 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 223 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 229 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 234 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 241 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 246 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 256 | 4% |
| 12-2031 | 264 | 4% |
with a 5-year average of $270 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 6% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 275 |
| 12-2023 | 258 |
| 12-2024 | 247 |
| 12-2025 | 275 |
| 12-2026 | 316 |
| 12-2027 | 331 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 53 |
| Days Inventory | 85 |
| Days Payables | 64 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2022 | 321 | 59 | 139 | 23 | 101 |
| 2023 | 657 | 127 | 301 | 83 | 146 |
| 2024 | 678 | 137 | 325 | 76 | 140 |
| 2025 | 717 | 141 | 334 | 29 | 214 |
| 2026 | 771 | 145 | 343 | 34 | 249 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 71.48 | 9.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 95.90 | 46.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 47.49 | -27.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 60.92 | -7.0% |
Is Haldex AB (HLDX.ST) a buy or a sell? Haldex AB is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Haldex AB (HLDX.ST) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 46.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $65.50.