As of April 4, 2026, Hibbett Sports Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $119.74 per share. With the current market price at $87.49, this represents a potential upside of 36.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $108.42 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $119.74 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 23.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 36.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.5% - 10.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1729 million in 02-2024 to $2352 million by 02-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 02-2024 | 1729 | 1% |
| 02-2025 | 1737 | 0% |
| 02-2026 | 1824 | 5% |
| 02-2027 | 1895 | 4% |
| 02-2028 | 1980 | 4% |
| 02-2029 | 2062 | 4% |
| 02-2030 | 2116 | 3% |
| 02-2031 | 2158 | 2% |
| 02-2032 | 2201 | 2% |
| 02-2033 | 2306 | 5% |
| 02-2034 | 2352 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 6% in 02-2024 to 6% by 02-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 02-2024 | 103 | 6% |
| 02-2025 | 101 | 6% |
| 02-2026 | 107 | 6% |
| 02-2027 | 111 | 6% |
| 02-2028 | 116 | 6% |
| 02-2029 | 120 | 6% |
| 02-2030 | 124 | 6% |
| 02-2031 | 126 | 6% |
| 02-2032 | 129 | 6% |
| 02-2033 | 135 | 6% |
| 02-2034 | 137 | 6% |
with a 5-year average of $49 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 02-2025 | 56 |
| 02-2026 | 60 |
| 02-2027 | 57 |
| 02-2028 | 57 |
| 02-2029 | 58 |
| 02-2030 | 60 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 3 |
| Days Inventory | 109 |
| Days Payables | 38 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 145 | 23 | 39 | (26) | 109 |
| 2026 | 204 | 32 | 55 | 34 | 83 |
| 2027 | 207 | 34 | 57 | 9 | 108 |
| 2028 | 214 | 35 | 60 | 6 | 113 |
| 2029 | 221 | 37 | 62 | 17 | 105 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 108.42 | 23.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 119.74 | 36.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 147.25 | 68.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 147.83 | 69.0% |
Is Hibbett Sports Inc (HIBB) a buy or a sell? Hibbett Sports Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Hibbett Sports Inc (HIBB) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 36.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $87.49.