What is HHV.L's DCF valuation?

Hargreave Hale Aim Vct PLC (HHV.L) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 25, 2025, Hargreave Hale Aim Vct PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $33.60, this represents a potential upside of -169.2%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -173.7%
Potential Upside (10-year) -169.2%
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.9% - 9.7%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
09-2024 (2) 90%
09-2025 (3) 5%
09-2026 (3) 3%
09-2027 (3) 3%
09-2028 (3) 2%
09-2029 (3) 6%
09-2030 (3) 2%
09-2031 (3) 3%
09-2032 (3) 2%
09-2033 (3) 2%
09-2034 (3) 2%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from 264% in 09-2024 to -650% by 09-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
09-2024 (7) 264%
09-2025 (6) -551%
09-2026 (6) -559%
09-2027 (6) -568%
09-2028 (6) -569%
09-2029 (6) -591%
09-2030 (6) -601%
09-2031 (6) -618%
09-2032 (6) -628%
09-2033 (6) -639%
09-2034 (6) -650%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
09-2025 0
09-2026 0
09-2027 0
09-2028 0
09-2029 0
09-2030 0

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 0
Days Inventory 0
Days Payables 2

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
2025 (7) (1) (0) (0) (6)
2026 (7) (1) (0) (0) (6)
2027 (7) (1) (0) 0 (6)
2028 (7) (1) (0) 0 (6)
2029 (7) (1) (0) (0) (6)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 7.9% - 9.7%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 6.6x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -173.7%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -169.2%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(105)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(99)M

Investment Conclusion

Is Hargreave Hale Aim Vct PLC (HHV.L) a buy or a sell? Hargreave Hale Aim Vct PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Hargreave Hale Aim Vct PLC (HHV.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -169.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $33.60.