What is HCFT.L's Intrinsic value?

Highcroft Investments PLC (HCFT.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 15, 2025, Highcroft Investments PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $847.70 to $1168.58 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $1168.58 +98.9%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $866.59 +47.5%
Earnings Power Value $847.70 +44.3%

Is Highcroft Investments PLC (HCFT.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $587.50, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Highcroft Investments PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.63 0.82
Cost of equity 7.8% 10.7%
Cost of debt 4.0% 5.2%
Tax rate 0.4% 1.3%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.91 0.91
After-tax WACC 6.0% 8.1%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.0% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $6 (FY12-2022) to $8 (FY12-2032)
  • Net profit margin expansion from -127% to -126%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 0% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $867 $66M 75.4%
10-Year Growth $1,169 $82M 58.7%
5-Year EBITDA $896 $68M 75.9%
10-Year EBITDA $1,195 $83M 59.4%

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $4M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.1% - 6.0%
Enterprise Value $56M - $75M
Net Debt $22M
Equity Value $33M - $53M
Outstanding Shares 0M
Fair Value $654 - $1,041
Selected Fair Value $847.70

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $30M
Enterprise Value $52M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 15.95
Current Dividend Yield 979.51%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 3.66%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.91

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 46% $350.57
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 38% $216.65
Earnings Power Value 15% $84.77
Weighted Average 100% $1003.06

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Highcroft Investments PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $1003.06, which is approximately 70.7% above the current market price of $587.50.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-127% to -126% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 3.66%

Given these factors, we believe Highcroft Investments PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.