As of October 15, 2025, Havila Shipping ASA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $1.32 to $26.01 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $1.85 | +59.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $1.32 | +13.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $1.53 | +32.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $2.56 | +121.0% |
| Earnings Power Value | $26.01 | +2142.1% |
Is Havila Shipping ASA (HAVI.OL) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $1.16, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Havila Shipping ASA's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.3% | 3.8% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.79 | 1.08 |
| Cost of equity | 7.4% | 10.9% |
| Cost of debt | 4.1% | 7.0% |
| Tax rate | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 3.01 | 3.01 |
| After-tax WACC | 4.9% | 8.0% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $1 | $1,255M | 89.9% |
| 10-Year Growth | $2 | $1,401M | 79.7% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $(1,234) | $240M | 47.2% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $(1,234) | $395M | 28.1% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $489M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.0% - 4.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $6,141M - $9,958M |
| Net Debt | $893M |
| Equity Value | $5,248M - $9,065M |
| Outstanding Shares | 275M |
| Fair Value | $19 - $33 |
| Selected Fair Value | $26.01 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $319M |
| Enterprise Value | $1212M |
| Trailing P/E | 9.48 |
| Forward P/E | 17.67 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 4.00 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 62.96% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 3.01 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $0.55 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $0.33 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $0.31 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $0.38 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $2.60 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $4.18 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Havila Shipping ASA's intrinsic value is $4.18, which is approximately 259.9% above the current market price of $1.16.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Havila Shipping ASA is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.