As of June 21, 2025, H & T Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $326.31 to $1026.81 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $1026.81 | +60.9% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $326.31 | -48.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $997.51 | +56.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $932.55 | +46.2% |
| Earnings Power Value | $898.88 | +40.9% |
Is H & T Group PLC (HAT.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $638.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate H & T Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.4 | 0.49 |
| Cost of equity | 6.4% | 8.4% |
| Cost of debt | 4.7% | 7.7% |
| Tax rate | 20.9% | 22.2% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.7% | 7.8% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $326 | $215M | 74.4% |
| 10-Year Growth | $1,027 | $518M | 71.3% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $541 | $308M | 82.1% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $764 | $404M | 63.2% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $31M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.8% - 5.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $390M - $535M |
| Net Debt | $74M |
| Equity Value | $316M - $461M |
| Outstanding Shares | 0M |
| Fair Value | $731 - $1,066 |
| Selected Fair Value | $898.88 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $276M |
| Enterprise Value | $350M |
| Trailing P/E | 12.40 |
| Forward P/E | 11.47 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 5.55 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 275.95% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 66.25% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.32 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $308.04 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $81.58 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $199.50 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $139.88 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $89.89 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $818.89 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, H & T Group PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $818.89, which is approximately 28.4% above the current market price of $638.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe H & T Group PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.