As of May 22, 2025, Harvest Health & Recreation Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $3.93, this represents a potential upside of -4758.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -1735.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -4758.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.6% - 8.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $231 million in 12-2020 to $14849 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 51.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 231 | 98% |
| 12-2021 | 428 | 85% |
| 12-2022 | 581 | 36% |
| 12-2023 | 1048 | 80% |
| 12-2024 | 1693 | 62% |
| 12-2025 | 2653 | 57% |
| 12-2026 | 4044 | 52% |
| 12-2027 | 5822 | 44% |
| 12-2028 | 8074 | 39% |
| 12-2029 | 11156 | 38% |
| 12-2030 | 14849 | 33% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -25% in 12-2020 to -9% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | (58) | -25% |
| 12-2021 | (87) | -20% |
| 12-2022 | (103) | -18% |
| 12-2023 | (160) | -15% |
| 12-2024 | (218) | -13% |
| 12-2025 | (283) | -11% |
| 12-2026 | (414) | -10% |
| 12-2027 | (572) | -10% |
| 12-2028 | (760) | -9% |
| 12-2029 | (1,004) | -9% |
| 12-2030 | (1,275) | -9% |
with a 5-year average of $35 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 64% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 89 |
| 12-2022 | 164 |
| 12-2023 | 294 |
| 12-2024 | 485 |
| 12-2025 | 819 |
| 12-2026 | 1281 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 22 |
| Days Inventory | 189 |
| Days Payables | 43 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2021 | 45 | (1) | 137 | 44 | (135) |
| 2022 | 181 | (2) | 372 | 5 | (193) |
| 2023 | 351 | (4) | 670 | 76 | (391) |
| 2024 | 619 | (5) | 1083 | 152 | (611) |
| 2025 | 1089 | (7) | 1697 | 148 | (749) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1735.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -4758.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 5.12 | 30.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 44.82 | 1040.5% |
Is Harvest Health & Recreation Inc (HARV.CN) a buy or a sell? Harvest Health & Recreation Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Harvest Health & Recreation Inc (HARV.CN) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -4758.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $3.93.