As of June 21, 2025, Gerresheimer AG has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $41.72 per share. With the current market price at $46.24, this represents a potential upside of -9.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $38.15 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $41.72 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -17.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -9.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.3% - 7.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2036 million in 11-2024 to $3264 million by 11-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2024 | 2036 | 2% |
| 11-2025 | 2185 | 7% |
| 11-2026 | 2228 | 2% |
| 11-2027 | 2341 | 5% |
| 11-2028 | 2493 | 6% |
| 11-2029 | 2564 | 3% |
| 11-2030 | 2615 | 2% |
| 11-2031 | 2805 | 7% |
| 11-2032 | 3010 | 7% |
| 11-2033 | 3070 | 2% |
| 11-2034 | 3264 | 6% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 6% in 11-2024 to 5% by 11-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2024 | 112 | 6% |
| 11-2025 | 113 | 5% |
| 11-2026 | 115 | 5% |
| 11-2027 | 121 | 5% |
| 11-2028 | 129 | 5% |
| 11-2029 | 133 | 5% |
| 11-2030 | 135 | 5% |
| 11-2031 | 145 | 5% |
| 11-2032 | 156 | 5% |
| 11-2033 | 159 | 5% |
| 11-2034 | 169 | 5% |
with a 5-year average of $263 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 15% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 11-2025 | 292 |
| 11-2026 | 317 |
| 11-2027 | 338 |
| 11-2028 | 346 |
| 11-2029 | 347 |
| 11-2030 | 360 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 56 |
| Days Inventory | 89 |
| Days Payables | 98 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 383 | 33 | 241 | (20) | 129 |
| 2026 | 540 | 45 | 328 | 9 | 158 |
| 2027 | 573 | 48 | 344 | 32 | 149 |
| 2028 | 596 | 51 | 367 | 9 | 169 |
| 2029 | 604 | 52 | 377 | 13 | 162 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 38.15 | -17.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 41.72 | -9.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 112.32 | 142.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 112.90 | 144.2% |
Is Gerresheimer AG (GXI.DE) a buy or a sell? Gerresheimer AG is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Gerresheimer AG (GXI.DE) appears to be fairly valued with upside potential of -9.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold at the current market price of $46.24.