As of June 17, 2025, W W Grainger Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $408.35 to $1164.26 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $1164.26 | +8.6% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $992.60 | -7.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $805.28 | -24.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $638.86 | -40.4% |
| Earnings Power Value | $408.35 | -61.9% |
Is W W Grainger Inc (GWW) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $1071.80, the stock appears to be moderately overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate W W Grainger Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.87 | 0.9 |
| Cost of equity | 7.9% | 9.9% |
| Cost of debt | 4.3% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 23.5% | 24.3% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.6% | 9.6% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $993 | $49,300M | 78.2% |
| 10-Year Growth | $1,164 | $57,546M | 62.1% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $789 | $39,496M | 72.8% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $977 | $48,567M | 55.1% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $1,802M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.6% - 7.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $18,837M - $23,627M |
| Net Debt | $1,615M |
| Equity Value | $17,222M - $22,012M |
| Outstanding Shares | 48M |
| Fair Value | $358 - $458 |
| Selected Fair Value | $408.35 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $51489M |
| Enterprise Value | $53104M |
| Trailing P/E | 26.96 |
| Forward P/E | 23.83 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 8.90 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 84.30% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 5.64% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.05 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $349.28 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $248.15 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $161.06 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $95.83 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $40.84 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $895.15 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, W W Grainger Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $895.15, which is approximately 16.5% below the current market price of $1071.80.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe W W Grainger Inc is currently moderately overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.