As of June 12, 2025, Green Brick Partners Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $83.92 to $128.07 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $128.07 | +110.7% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $108.73 | +78.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $92.26 | +51.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $86.82 | +42.9% |
| Earnings Power Value | $83.92 | +38.1% |
Is Green Brick Partners Inc (GRBK) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $60.77, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Green Brick Partners Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.85 | 0.88 |
| Cost of equity | 7.8% | 9.8% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 19.7% | 20.6% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.3% | 9.1% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $109 | $5,008M | 69.1% |
| 10-Year Growth | $128 | $5,857M | 51.8% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $97 | $4,484M | 65.4% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $117 | $5,353M | 47.3% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $316M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.1% - 7.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $3,495M - $4,341M |
| Net Debt | $231M |
| Equity Value | $3,264M - $4,110M |
| Outstanding Shares | 44M |
| Fair Value | $74 - $94 |
| Selected Fair Value | $83.92 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $2670M |
| Enterprise Value | $2901M |
| Trailing P/E | 7.15 |
| Forward P/E | 6.56 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 7.25 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 11.12% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.15 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $38.42 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $27.18 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $18.45 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $13.02 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $8.39 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $105.47 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Green Brick Partners Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $105.47, which is approximately 73.6% above the current market price of $60.77.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Green Brick Partners Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.