As of June 19, 2025, Green Brick Partners Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $83.37 to $127.11 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $127.11 | +113.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $107.96 | +81.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $91.54 | +53.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $86.29 | +44.8% |
| Earnings Power Value | $83.37 | +39.9% |
Is Green Brick Partners Inc (GRBK) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $59.59, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Green Brick Partners Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.86 | 0.89 |
| Cost of equity | 7.8% | 9.9% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 19.7% | 20.6% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.3% | 9.1% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $108 | $4,974M | 68.9% |
| 10-Year Growth | $127 | $5,815M | 51.6% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $95 | $4,414M | 64.9% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $115 | $5,283M | 46.7% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $316M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.1% - 7.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $3,468M - $4,319M |
| Net Debt | $231M |
| Equity Value | $3,236M - $4,088M |
| Outstanding Shares | 44M |
| Fair Value | $74 - $93 |
| Selected Fair Value | $83.37 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $2618M |
| Enterprise Value | $2849M |
| Trailing P/E | 7.01 |
| Forward P/E | 6.43 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 7.10 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 11.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.15 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $38.13 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $26.99 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $18.31 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $12.94 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $8.34 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $104.71 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Green Brick Partners Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $104.71, which is approximately 75.7% above the current market price of $59.59.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Green Brick Partners Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.