As of May 23, 2025, Great Panther Mining Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $5.71 per share. With the current market price at $1.09, this represents a potential upside of 423.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $5.71 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -772.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 423.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.9% - 9.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $186 million in 12-2021 to $485 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 186 | 29% |
| 12-2022 | 372 | 101% |
| 12-2023 | 318 | -15% |
| 12-2024 | 347 | 9% |
| 12-2025 | 358 | 3% |
| 12-2026 | 373 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 390 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 421 | 8% |
| 12-2029 | 439 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 473 | 8% |
| 12-2031 | 485 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -23% in 12-2021 to 4% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | (42) | -23% |
| 12-2022 | (65) | -18% |
| 12-2023 | (41) | -13% |
| 12-2024 | (29) | -8% |
| 12-2025 | (15) | -4% |
| 12-2026 | 0 | 0% |
| 12-2027 | 3 | 1% |
| 12-2028 | 6 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 10 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 14 | 3% |
| 12-2031 | 18 | 4% |
. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 11% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 31 |
| 12-2023 | 37 |
| 12-2024 | 40 |
| 12-2025 | 39 |
| 12-2026 | 38 |
| 12-2027 | 39 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 5 |
| Days Inventory | 62 |
| Days Payables | 47 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | (26) | (1) | 40 | 9 | (75) |
| 2023 | 5 | (0) | 34 | (5) | (25) |
| 2024 | 20 | (0) | 38 | 1 | (19) |
| 2025 | 34 | (0) | 39 | (0) | (5) |
| 2026 | 48 | 0 | 40 | (0) | 8 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -772.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 5.71 | 423.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.67 | -38.9% |
Is Great Panther Mining Ltd (GPR.TO) a buy or a sell? Great Panther Mining Ltd is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Great Panther Mining Ltd (GPR.TO) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 423.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $1.09.