As of June 16, 2025, Green Plains Partners LP's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $17.01 to $37.07 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $37.07 | +201.2% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $34.25 | +178.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $27.18 | +120.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $17.01 | +38.2% |
| Earnings Power Value | $27.16 | +120.6% |
Is Green Plains Partners LP (GPP) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $12.31, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Green Plains Partners LP's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.77 | 1.01 |
| Cost of equity | 7.4% | 10.5% |
| Cost of debt | 4.9% | 6.0% |
| Tax rate | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.0% | 9.7% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $26 | $646M | 72.2% |
| 10-Year Growth | $29 | $706M | 50.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $54M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.7% - 7.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $559M - $777M |
| Net Debt | $36M |
| Equity Value | $523M - $741M |
| Outstanding Shares | 23M |
| Fair Value | $22 - $32 |
| Selected Fair Value | $27.16 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $286M |
| Enterprise Value | $323M |
| Trailing P/E | 7.50 |
| Forward P/E | 6.90 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 3.75 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 1508.05% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -8.97% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.20 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $11.12 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $8.56 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $5.44 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $2.55 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $2.72 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $30.39 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Green Plains Partners LP's weighted average intrinsic value is $30.39, which is approximately 146.8% above the current market price of $12.31.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Green Plains Partners LP is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.