What is GPORQ's Intrinsic value?

Gulfport Energy Corp (GPORQ) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 21, 2025, Gulfport Energy Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.03 to $0.03 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Earnings Power Value $0.03 -47.1%

Is Gulfport Energy Corp (GPORQ) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $0.05, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Gulfport Energy Corp's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.2% 3.7%
Equity market risk premium 4.2% 5.2%
Adjusted beta 19.25 20.12
Cost of equity 84.8% 109.6%
Cost of debt 6.0% 13.1%
Tax rate 0.3% 0.4%
Debt/Equity ratio 33.23 33.23
After-tax WACC 8.3% 15.9%

Valuation Methods

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $18M
Discount Rate (WACC) 15.9% - 8.3%
Enterprise Value $115M - $221M
Net Debt $164M
Equity Value $(49)M - $57M
Outstanding Shares 161M
Fair Value $(0) - $0
Selected Fair Value $0.03

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $8M
Enterprise Value $172M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 1.90
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 33.23

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Earnings Power Value 100% $0.00
Weighted Average 100% $0.03

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Gulfport Energy Corp's weighted average intrinsic value is $0.03, which is approximately 47.1% below the current market price of $0.05.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-188% to -183% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Gulfport Energy Corp is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.